The Puerh bubble

I personally have been sitting out the puerh bubble waiting for it to burst. I haven't made any serious purchases in over 3 years because I just couldnt justify the escalating prices and the poor quality of many offerings. It seems that maybe the situation is turning about.......

Thanks go out to Corax for pointing me to this nice little tidbit:

From Reuters, Tuesday December 9 2008

By Simon Rabinovitch BEIJING, Dec 9 (Reuters) - Those nursing losses in their stock portfolios should spare a thought for Chinese investors who piled into the tea market in one of the more frenzied and bizarre speculative bubbles last year. The price of puer tea, a fermented variety from the country's southwestern Yunnan province, has crashed under the weight of overproduction and a vastly diminished appetite for exotic assets. Puer tea has shed 85 percent of its value since peaking in May last year, industry watchers said on Tuesday. That is even worse than the Shanghai stock market, which has tumbled nearly 70 percent from a record high scaled 14 months ago. "People who did not really understand the industry have been hit the hardest," said Yong, the representative of a puer trade website (cnpuerh.com) based in Xishuangbanna, a mountainous region in Yunnan that produces the tea. Yong, who did not want to give his first name, said many of the tea farms that turned to puer when it was the darling of investors have quit the business. Connoisseurs of the slightly bitter tea, though, are not necessarily grieving the loss. "The price is very low, so farmers have stopped managing their crops so intensively. They use less fertiliser, less pesticide," Yong said. "This actually means the quality now is very good." Back in the heady days of puer investment, people paid astronomical sums for the tea, which is sold in hard-packed bricks and tastes best when aged like fine wine. A 100g (3.5 oz) brick of 60-year-old puer sold for 300,000 yuan ($39,400) last February, state media reported. Declared a tea for emperors during the Qing dynasty, puer's popularity today is driven in large part by China's new rich for whom it is one trapping of the good life. Geng Xiaolu, manager of Jiuquxi Tea House in Beijing, said her framed work of puer art remained the prized piece of her tea collection, regardless of market fluctuations. Hard puer bricks can be sculpted into small reliefs, and Geng held a fine example in her hands: nine scaly dragons twisting across each other. "I don't care if it's worth only one penny. I would never sell it," she said. (Reporting by Simon Rabinovitch; Editing by Ken Wills)

Reply to
Mike Petro
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Was wondering when that would happen. When something rather esoteric (like Puer) gets popular in the mainstream, it's only a matter of time before it comes crashing back down. I figure when I hear it being talked about it in the street, it's reached its peak and only going downhill from there.

Reply to
Twug Storn

I actually had wandered over to your website during the big boom to see what stance you were taking. I basically just ignored Puerh for the duration and hoped that it would come back to Earth again in my lifetime. I still have a number aging from around 2003-04-ish but no new purchases, Hopefully now that you're back and prices are coming down you can suggest a good cooked pick from recent vintage.

- Dom> I personally have been sitting out the puerh bubble waiting for it to

Reply to
Dominic T.

I would like to see them prove that the cake was really 60 years old and that it survived the Cultural Revolution. This reminds me of a XiaGuan Iron cake I once saw that was said to be 60 years old. Funny, I don't even think the company has been open 60 years.

Reply to
Mydnight

My distant relation in Taiwan has been keeping me up to date on his tea adventures. I wouldnt drink my granny puer from anything less than $14k to $22k Qing Dynasty Zuni teapots he actually got to handle. Id make sure I was insured. He hasnt said it but I infer the more sage you are about tea the more expensive your teapot. I complain about any teapots over $20. The big demand in Taiwan are any pots from the Mao era.

Jim

Reply to
netstuff

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