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Napa Harvest Report

This year looks to be one of the best growing seasons in years, with a normal sized crop of probable exceptional quality.

Sounds good, until you realize that about 15% to 25% or or more is never going to be picked, and will be allowed to rot. The bankruptcies of vineyards is going to be one of the untold stories of 2009.

The economy of high end wines has been hammered. Grapes which used to sell for $3500 a ton are lucky to find buyers for $1200 a ton, or less. And even then, their grape deals to sell sell 40-60 tons have been pared back to maybe 10 tons if they are lucky, and the rest of the fruit rots on the vine.

There are some actually some small to medium sized wineries which have cancelled all their grape contracts and will make NO wine this year, because of unsold inventories. Even large wineries which used to buy

1,000 oak barrels a year are buying zero.

This can't be called the worse year since 1934, because Repeal after Prohibition at the bottom of the Depression at least brought some stimulus.

Not so this year, the worst year in history. Expect about 500 wineries of all sizes to close their doors by this time next year. Those which survive, owned by chain winery groups, will be behind seven months in paying growers and suppliers, and lawsuits will be useless, because you can't sue people in bankruptcy or who don't exist anymore.

I had four conversations with winemakers today, and there was nothing good. These guys are all wondering if they will lose their jobs in a few weeks.

And we know this is only the beginning. Early next year it's all going to crash, BIG TIME You ain't seen nothing yet.

So this is my harvest report. I will have updates about wine quality of unsold grapes which will rot in the vineyard, and winery foreclosures and bankruptcy filings each week as we go on.

Thanks

--Bob Robertson

Reply to
Bobchai
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Wow, Bob! That is one depressing prognosis. For your sake and the sake of the whole industry, I hope that things turn out better than anticipated. It sounds like barrel sales are way down, too? BTW, it's great having you back with the perspective you bring to this group. I was just thinking about you not long ago when I read a tasting note for a '78 Sterling Merlot, when I couldn't help wondering if you had a hand in making it. The person who posted the note loved the wine, FWIW.

Cheers! Mark Lipton

Reply to
Mark Lipton

Not good news at all.

Reply to
Lawrence Leichtman

Sad, but not unexpected... I drive through hiway 12 several time a year and have been flabbergasted at the - what I call - overplanting. empty dry hills formerly beef pasture planted to grapes, and a monoculture that just asks for something like the glassy-winged sharpshooter to come feast... I know several people who have had their

5 acre ranchettes planted to wine grapes and were financing their annual trips to Europe on the sales, but that all stopped about 4 or five years ago. That and so many new wineries with no track record trying to sell their first releases at $50, $100, $150/bottle. I am hoping with the drop in grape prices some of the wineries will drop their prices so we poor consumers can get some premium wines at what I would consider fairer prices. I don't hold out much hope, though for American producers - they seem to think they have to keep that hich price cachet and would rather go bankrupt rather than drop their prices. I also expect to see a lot of second lables pop up, and maybe we can get some really good two buck chuck!

Jim

Reply to
Ronin

Yeah, you can bet that Fred Franzia is laughing his ass off right about now. As always, though, with 2BC you'll have to watch out for variation between lots. Would that TTB required lot numbers on wines.

Mark Lipton

Mark Lipton

Reply to
Mark Lipton

Yes, there are large grape arbors in almost every front yard in Napa and Sonoma. Someone expects to sell all of that juice but to whom?

Reply to
Lawrence Leichtman

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