Frederick
Thank you for your long and detailed response.
Your first comment was "Are you condemning us "little guys" to eternal darkness ?? I would rather light a candle. " Absolutely not.
I will address the notion that our Brix Measurements are incorrect. They are not. I do them up to harvest, and then they are also done by the owner of the vineyard - a 7th generation farmer and vinyardist. The Brix are then taken when the grapes arrive at the winery. we do this in order to again ascertain the starting point for the fermentation tables and data we keep. I am confident that between all of these measurement - made BTW with calibrated refractometers and hydrometers - are as accurate as they can humanly be. There is nothing wrong with your hydrometers, or perhaps your references. There seems to be something wrong with how you are using the data, and your results. I am not calculating anything. We take measurements at Point A - the day we pick, and we test again throughout fermentation and after fermentation - Point X.
I posit that both you (I do not mean this in a pejorative or nasty sense in any way), are calculating using equations that may be the best available, but cannot take into account all of the factors effecting PA. And yes I do think that Davis is wrong in this case. They can be - not always, but often. I usually put their work into the "It's great in theory, but will it work in practice" category. Like your calculations, reading and thinking about the work done at Davis is a terrific intellectual exercise.
I have discussed this concept of calculating PA with a colleague who has been making fine wines for 35 years - wines you would most likely recognize. His response was similar to mine. Too many variables to calculate anything but a ballpark.
I am not suggesting that it is not important to try and understand what your PA will be. It is. I also know that the objectives of home or occasional winemakers are different from those of professional winemakers. I am only suggesting that trying to calculate PA in a system that is a soup of hundreds - if not thousands - of chemicals and organisms is an exercise that cannot provide accurate results. The results may be precise, but they are not necessarily accurate.
I have had some experience with calculating theoretical endpoints. My doctoral thesis was at points (or at least is seemed that way at times) one long calculation. Try as I might there were never perfect overlays of the theoretical curves vs. the actual ones. The systems were too complex. Was the work useless? No, as it gave us an idea of what the results would or could or should look like when we were able to obtain experimental endpoints.
I will look for Berry's book when I am at the Wine Symposium in Sacramento this month. There is usually a great book selection there. Thank you for the reference.
Regards
Jerry