Newbie wine questions: Investing

So I find a wine whose price I see as reasonable. Though it won't be ready to drink for a few mores years or so, I go out and buy one of those portable wine cellars from Sam's Club (holds 24 bottles). Then I buy 6 bottles of wine for $300 each, thinking they will go up in value (some places are already listing at $450 or more, and the lowest auction I seen these go for was $340). Am I taking a very big risk? How do I know if these have been stored properly? (I'm getting tired of the stock market)!! And if they go up in value, I can sell four for $450 each and drink two, thus getting some great wine for "free." Is this a good plan?

Reply to
Vincent
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I confess that this query reminded me slightly of another posted here April

1, "Subject: Some modest questions."

Max

Reply to
Max Hauser

Sorry if I asked something that was covered already. Unfortunately, my server does not go back to April. The earliest entry is July 1 (and I've only found this group two days ago). I can understand if people don't want to answer the same questions again and again. Thanks for mentioning the previous subject at least. I will google it and see if my answer can be found there.

But if anyone would like to answer it here as well, I would be much appreciative. Thanks in advance.

Reply to
Vincent

I personally would never advise anyone to "invest" in wine. Buy what you plan on drinking. For you to make a profit,

1) You need to figure in the costs of holding the wine- the cabinet, the electricity, the lost money-opportunity cost. 2) You better hope a major critic doesn't downgrade the wine. :) 3) Hope that next few vintages of whatever type of wine you have are mediocre - a string of "super-vintages" coming into the pipeline can significantly soften market. Despite being excellent vintages, most 1996 Piemontes and 1998 Southern Rhones haven't really appreciated much since release. 4) Account for seller's costs - commissions, ads, shipping,etc. Personally, even with assurance of good provenance, I don't buy from private seller unless they're probably 20+% less than lowest winesearcher.com (pro version!) retail. 5) In US there's also issues with legalities, depending on your state. 6) A lot of external factors (exchange rate, economy, etc) make investing in wine as risky as the stock market (though less liquid).

Dale

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Reply to
Dale Williams

Sounds like a plan, but not necessarily a "good" one. First, there is the economy of scale issue. Dealing with 24 bottles total in six bottle lots means you've got $7200 tied up for a long time and then are dependent upon finding someone seeking exactly that producer and vintage for the appreciated price. Unlikely.

Better to build a cellar for a thousand bottles, buy stuff that you taste in case lots. Then drink it when you feel like.

Ed Rasimus Fighter Pilot (USAF-Ret) "When Thunder Rolled" Smithsonian Institution Press ISBN #1-58834-103-8

Reply to
Ed Rasimus

Max, I googled for the subject you mentioned, honestly hoping to find an answer (or sincere advice) to my questions. Instead, I found the post was yours, and did not seem too sincere (ah yes, April Fool's Day). Up until now, I have found that people here were quite helpful (very helpful, as a matter of fact). If my questions seem "foolish" to you, I would rather you replied so honestly, maybe advising me why I'm being foolish.

Anyway, your sarcasm does seem to tickle a few funny bones. If I'm a

*typical* newbie, and you find fault with that, then maybe this is not the right place for me. I can't afford to be a yuppie, though I probably would be if my income matched my taste. Just trying to benefit from the experiences of others who are willing to share, so that I don't make some obvious mistakes. V

Reply to
Vincent

Personally,

The only way to profitably "invest" in wines is to get on California mailing lists (e.g., Screaming Eagle) where the buy price is substantially less than the secondary market. Any other approach (except perhaps futures or long-haul investments) will probably result in a loss for the reasons stated above.

Of course, if you put your money in wine, at least you have a product you can use (and drown your sorrows with).

Also, in my opinion, NEVER buy old wines. Yes, they might be good, but there's no way you can be sure. Only buy new releases that are properly shipped and stored.

Reply to
George Cutshaw

Vincent, You'll have to forgive Max's humor, but you must understand that wine "investors" are viewed by most wine lovers as a pox on humanity. We buy wine to enjoy, and those who use it as an investment make it more expensive for us to enjoy something that we love. I don't begrudge wineries, importers or retailers their profit margins because they all provide valuable services or products but I bear no love at all for some leech who wants to sell my favorite wine at inflated price in the aftermarket and in so doing buys up all the stock before I can get my hands on any. Get it?

Having said that, it's still a very risky investment. Like any commodity trading, prices can fluctuate wildly and it's as easy (perhaps easier) to lose money as it is to make it. Also keep in mind that you're dealing with a perishable commodity, so your ability to profit will depend on your providing impeccable provenance. You'll also have to watch auction prices like a hawk, since you'll have to sell at auction as most states forbid the sale of alcohol by individuals.

There are economists in this group who could give you a much more detailed analysis of the pitfalls, but the bottom line is you'd be most likely better off with a more traditional investment unless you're already a savvy commodities trader. You'll also have more friends in this group. ;-)

Mark Lipton

Reply to
Mark Lipton

"Vincent" in news:3vUIc.670$ snipped-for-privacy@newssvr33.news.prodigy.com...

I didn't mean that. Just that the query reminded me of some I had in mind on April 1. They casually ask deep and elaborate questions. Some of them ask for the moon. Sort of like a tongue-in-cheek "academic examination" that circulated in the US 15 or 20 years ago with questions like "Describe the history of the Papacy from inception to the today. Be concise but complete. You have 10 minutes. ."

Rather than investing $300 per bottle recommended by others, why not (for example) first spend a few years investing in $20 bottles and getting to know them? As Dale Williams noted, buying on price speculation exposes you to real risks. There is a serious chance that the planned payoff won't develop.

But investing in your own palate is a sure thing. Learning ins and outs of wines not only builds your ability to predict what you and others will like (which a published critic may or may not do), it frees you from the marketplace impact of such critics. I count as some of my best purchases over the years wines that matured very well but were inexpensive and not especially fashionable when on the market. Certainly, they would have been poorer values if recommended in a publication (then everyone would rush for them and they'd be either higher-priced or absent). Such is the false promise of "numerical" wine buying.

This assumes that your point is eventually to enjoy the wine you do open. (Today that does not always seem to be the case. I see people who formulate every comment, seemingly every perception, in terms of opinions of this or that expert. Yes, -- would like this wine. / That wine is no good, --- gave it only a 79. / Life is too short to drink wines rated under 90 points.) Will these people ever develop palates of their own? What would they do with a truly outstanding wine lacking a label or rating?

I spent Saturday with very good friends, two of whom are an academic couple in the US Midwest. They are not really "wine geeks" but shared an exuberant open-minded passion for good wines for over 20 years and learned some things in the process. They spoke Saturday of a colleague who is enthusiastic about wine and participates on Web-site forums but relies, I gather, heavily on authorities in describing and assessing wines. Is this kind of thing a stepping-stone to developing one's own understanding of wine (as its practitioners argue), or a hindrance? (I actually do not know, that's not a rhetorical question.)

I also have to add that I don't presume that everyone is after the same things in wine, or develops their palates in the same way. Some fairly permanent principles do seem to stand out, in writing about wine expertise from various eras, and I wonder if they are getting neglected in the recent US reliance on numerical ratings.

In April-May 1987 on this wine forum (well before it moved from rec.food.drink) we had a long thread on the "wine-anxiety phenomenon." (The natural hesitation of people to put their tastes forward for strangers to see, and how to bring this out, as it is one of the most positive things a wine enthusiast can contribute, in a friendly environment.) Message ID et sequelae. Thread lasted a couple of weeks, many different perspectives, I still have a file of paper copies of it, useful background material for wine tastings. At that time, "numerical" ratings were still somewhat novel and did not constitute much of a factor competing with expression of personal taste. (People in the US did not yet often refer to wines as "rated an 86" or whatever). Today, as I mentioned two paragraphs back, they may constitute additional competition.

Max

Reply to
Max Hauser

From my perspective Max, you have nailed it. I prefer to drink my chosen wines, than harbour delusions of wealth from investing.

Please note, the secondary market in Australia is the basis of opinions from hereon.

However, *wry smile*, nothing feels better than to pick a wine from a show. You love, it. You pay the $20 bottle price (a few cases of course), and enjoy drinking/learning in it's development over X years. Some wag says to me, "If only I could find a 98 XXXXX....I'd pay fifty quid for it.."..... Well.. sale is done, as it simply subsidises more experiments. I do admit to 'stockpiling' random affordable wines, that I have chosen from shows, or have been 'worded up' on, lay them a couple of years, and enjoy them, or they CAN offer a comfortable earner. More likely a well chosen 'one of' $20 btl can be sold within 5 years for $50 than a $300 btl with the ability to sell for $750. Thus, entry is easy, affordable, and educational. :>)

The moral of the story is, if your 'investment' potential is not realised, but your choice is based on your own taste, well, you drink the spoils I guess. You haven't outlayed a king's ransom for the opportunity and pleasure.

Regards Matt. S (Swooper)

Reply to
Swooper

I understand. When I get into things, I'm often eager to learn all the ins and outs as quickly as possible. But what you are saying is that experience is the only way to really learn. Since we are all different, no one opinion will suffice for everybody's taste (and I'm yet to discover mine).

Again, that makes a lot of sense. I've been drinking wine for many years, some I've enjoyed better than others, obviously, but my recent discovery of a particular Bordeaux (Chateau La Lagune, 1975) has ignited a passion in me that makes me want to pursue my new interest. Of course, Bordeaux's are not the cheapest ones in the world to experiment with, and my income, unfortunately, does not match my taste. Those less-expensive Bordeaux's (the $20 bottles) that I have seen say they won't be "ready" to drink until 2015 or something like that.

Therefore, I've concluded (maybe erroneously) that I most likely will enjoy a 99 rated Bordeaux (WS). That may be silly. I don't like all 4-star movies better than all two-star movies, but given 20 random movies of each rating, I would generally enjoy more 4-star movies than 2-star movies. So given that, when I see a $300 bottle of wine (auction price that gets no bids) selling in wine strores for $450 to $500, and in restaurants for $695 to $895, and they say it won't be drinkable 'til 2005, with 15-20+ years to enjoy, I'm thinking it has to be a winner. On the other hand, I do have to wonder why it gets no bids.

How would I find some good $20 "drinkable" Bordeaux's? Would you have any recomendations (or even where to look)? Even going up to $40 would include my favorite (albeit the only one I had) mentioned above if I buy it from a wine store (I seen it for $39 after paying $115 at a restaurant).

I have already discovered that on a smaller scale (see last paragraph).

In my case, I think I care about the ratings only when I don't know the wine. If I already like it, the rating doesn't matter. In fact, I wish it were rated lower so that market conditions would bring down its price. Some of the cheapest great wine I had, was at restaurants in Northeast Italy. The house wine was wonderful, stuff we can't buy here in most cases, as they were from local wineries too small to export (and averaging the same price per bottle as we in Chicago would pay for a glass). Once you become confident in something (as we quickly learned to put our trust in the house selections), labels or ratings really made no difference. But when asked to shell out $115 (or $300) for something you know very little about, you look for all the "expertise" you can find, hence my myriad of questions.

US Midwest! I'm from Chicago, so if you know of any stores where I might try, please let me know. Using a movie analogy again to address the point you just made, I'm a big fan of Roger Ebert, and one of my favorite movies of all time is a film called Days of Heaven. I seen this film after reading an Ebert review (4 stars plus comments he made). While his review may have sparked an interest in me, it was the film itself evoked the passion. If it weren't for that review, chances are I never would have seen the film. Of course, if I only limited myself to seeing Ebert 4-star films (which I don't always agree with), then I wound say it's a hinderance.

Based on descriptions given of wines you do like, are you able to judge whether another similarly described wine would be to your liking? In other words, if I find one I like that's nose is described as "berries, vanilla, and oak," might there be a good chance that I might like another with the same flavors (as opposed to "tar, tobacco, and leather")?

In that respect, I do see how ratings can end up hurting. A Spanish white wine we used to enjoy, Vega Sindoa Chardonnay, costing anywhere from $9 - $12 per bottle is no longer available from the store we used to buy it. Rating somewhere in the mid-80's (depending on vintage), the store stopped selling it a few years after they started putting the ratings on the shelf. Now they don't have anything less than 90 (or $9 - $12 either). And the

92-rated Spanish Chardonnay's that we paid $17.99 for, is not as enjoyable as "old-86."

Thank you very much for your reply (and for listening).

Reply to
Vincent

Thanks, Mark! Well, if you knew my income, you'd all laugh. There's no way I'm going to corner the wine market and drive up prices. But I suppose if everybody took that approach (and some do), then that would drive up the prices of the good stuff. Just like years ago, getting front-row seats at a baseball game was quite possible. If ticket holders couldn't make it, they'd turn their tickets in. Now they sell them to resellers (legal scalpers), who sell them for well over 1000%.

Enjoying wine is the main reason I'm here. The investing came as an afterthought as a way to afford some of those high-priced 99's which I can't afford. You, Max, Dale and George kinda all put it in good perspective. Well, I hope to have some wine experiences to share with this group. Seems like a lot of good people here.

Take care!

Reply to
Vincent

If you're in Chicago, Sam's has some '99s that probably would drink well with (a) 2 hour decant & (b) some meatier dishes. Seconds like Bahans Haut Brion or Sarget du Gruaud-Larose, lesser Left Bankers like Grand Puy Lacoste, or Right Bankers like La Croix du Casse or Mazeyres. The Bahans is only one I know I've had, but I'd try any.

Dale

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Reply to
Dale Williams

I've encountered the same problem. I'm at the age where I'm reluctant to buy green bananas. A wine that won't be 'ready' for ten years would be a waste of my money.

The number of folks who are willing to spend that much money for a bottle is small. That means small market for the sale. You'll find a lot more folks that like wine are able to buy bottles for $30-50 dollars and will spend $100-150 splurging in a good restaurant for something that they might not otherwise be able to find. I've enjoyed some Turley, Rochioli, Siduri, etc. when I've seen them on a wine list, but have never had much chance to find them on the shelf of my local merchants.

I was born/raised in Chicago, but moved away many years ago and don't get back much. I have, however, had great experience with Sam's online

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They've got a great selection, good prices and are reliable for shipping. They send me a newsletter email once or twice a week with special offerings and apparently they run regular tasting events to highlight regions and producers. If I were in Chicago, I'd certainly make a pilgrimage.

Ed Rasimus Fighter Pilot (USAF-Ret) "When Thunder Rolled" Smithsonian Institution Press ISBN #1-58834-103-8

Reply to
Ed Rasimus

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