The Two Buck Chuck effect?

Mark, my guess it's not that wineries are "crafting lower priced" wines but that they are in many cases being forced to reduce prices by current market conditions in general. I doubt styles are changing - "style" doesn't cost much, after all - only the prices are. Stated another way, both Two Buck Chuck *and* lower prices in other wines are symptoms of massive overplanting of wine grapes and overproduction of wine in California. It's the production "boom" part of the same sort of boom-bust cycle that happens in other industries and with the same result in terms of pressure on prices and winery finances. My guess is that after a few years of people pulling out grapes, grape prices will return to something like normal and the days of Two Buck Chuck will be over. In the meantime, we can probably expect more wine industry consolidation with the likes of Gallo and Constellation buying up smaller fry, also more bankruptcies like De Loach - again, just like other industries with excess production capacity. Just my two cents' worth ;^)

- Mark W.

Excellent point, Mark -- I've fallen into the trap of confusing correlation with causality.

What you say makes perfect sense. However, we must not lose sight of the developments taking place beyond the borders of CA. As I understand it, Yellowtail has become the #1 wine import in the US. If we try to understand why, we must conclude that beyond marketing (which counts for quite a bit, no doubt) there is a strong market in this country for decently made, simple wines selling in the under-$10 range. And why not? It's been a gaping hole in our wine choices for decades: where are the Vin de Pays/Vino di Tavola equivalents? I don't know if this represents a permanent trend, or rather just a response to hard economic times, but I'll be watching with interest for the next few years...

Mark Lipton

I have to dispute that assertion, Mark. Style can amount to a very significant added cost. Compare, e.g., a tank fermented, unoaked Chardonnay such as Calla-lees to a barrel fermented Chardonnay aged in new French oak. Even if you were to start with the same fruit, the styles would be vastly different and the cost of production would be more than double for the latter. The same applies to red wine production, e.g. Beaujolais nouveau vs grand cru Beaujolais.

Tom S

I went back to Trader Joes today to sample another Charles Shaw wine. Since the Cabernet I bought was horrid I thought I'd try the Merlot. Since it was Saturday there were long checkout lines. Almost everybody in line had at least 3 bottles in their carts. I noticed the Charles Shaw white wines are selling more than the reds. This stuff is still flying out the stores. I popped the cork and I noticed it actually had a nice aroma. I took a sip and it wasn't that bad. The taste was very fruity and not overbearing and bitter. This stuff is very drinkable. Its not a great wine but its pretty good. I would definitely buy it again. The taste is equivalent to a $9 or $10 bottle of another brand. I'm gonna try the Charles Shaw white wines next and see what they taste like. At $2 a bottle this stuff is the deal of the century.

... and it might taste totally different.

;-)

Dana

To a point, of course, you're right - if you're silly enough, for example, to put a wine into 100% new French oak, you can spend up to $2 or so per bottle on the oak. I think most of us here don't like wine treated like that anyway but in any case, wines in the price category Mark L. and I were talking about were always getting their oak in less expensive fashion. So while it's true that my statement is not universally true - style *can* cost money if your style is big oak - I think for the purposes of our discussion, what I said is generally valid. I *don't* believe wine production techniques are generally changing in order to make wine less expensive. I haven't noted any big shift away from oak in wine. I do think the current grape/wine oversupply are forcing wineries to review and in some cases reduce their pricing, with corresponding pressure on winery financials.

- Mark W.